How Much Pressure Is Too Much Pressure?

Usually, when a big stack tries to push other players around, it results in a great poker show.

If done correctly, such a strategy will likely lead you to the top prizes of the poker tournament. That is unless you get caught with your hand in the cookie jar.

In today's Deepsolver Check, we'll look at a hand between Joshua Payne from America and Ruslan Prydryk from Ukraine. The primer was a chip leader, exerting a ton of pressure on every other player in a very deep stage of the 2023 WSOP Main Event. The latter was one of the bigger stacks among the field and a guy who contributed significantly to Payne missing the biggest final table of the year.

Did Payne go too far with his aggressive plan, or was the Rydryk - who didn't believe his opponent - too stubborn to fold when he should?

You'll find out soon!

Sometimes people just hate folding to your bets

You can see how the whole story unfolded in the Tweet below:

The hand we're about to discuss starts with a very loose open (96o) from Joshua Payne. According to the GTO strategy, this hand is a pure fold. Of course, every hand has its context, so we'll assume this raise may be justifiable to a degree due to the other stack sizes/ICM and table metagame.

Moving to Ruslan Prydryk, he has a pure defense, especially vs. someone who may be out of line with his opens (and as we've just noticed, Payne was). In theory, A2 could act as a 3-bet bluff, but in practice, it will be much easier to play it passively, keeping the pot small and the opponent's range as wide as possible.

The flop is not exciting for either player

Range-wise, despite having a lot of trips, Prydryk's equity should remain lower than Payne's, even if the latter opens extremely wide. Nevertheless, there's no reason for the Ukrainian player to develop a leading range, especially if he suspects that Payne will do the betting himself.

Side note: up to this point, the American player was by far the most active and aggressive at the table. Given these circumstances, we'll assume he's cbetting 100% of his holdings.

Going back to Prydryk, how should he react to such an aggressive strategy? He has to defend a lot of his range (almost 70%, to be exact). Ruslan should mostly call (40%) but can also implement a reasonable amount of raises. We have to point out though, that when being deep in a big tournament, like the WSOP Main Event, you have to be more conservative due to the ICM, so we'd lean more towards calling than raising in such situations.

Turns open a lot of drawing options

Considering the aggressive dynamics and context of the hand, the out-of-position player has no interest in developing a leading range. Prydryk agrees as he checks quickly.

Joshua has to be a little more selective right now. The eight of clubs does not improve his range tremendously - he still should have a lot of unpaired hands, and he definitely shouldn't bet all of them.

Two things are clear in the GTO strategy for Payne.

Firstly, he should overbet, as it's the sizing the poker solver likes to choose most frequently.

Secondly, his bluffing range should include a lot of straight draws (distinguished by specific suits).

In-game, Payne nails these guidelines and goes for a little over the pot with his 96o.

Without much hesitation, the Ukrainian calls. He shouldn't, though. Despite his exact holding being just a little shy of 50% against his opponent's betting range, Prydryk should fold.

There are a few things to consider here.

Firstly, and most importantly, Ruslan is facing an overbet, and therefore he needs over 35% equity to make a profitable call. Such a high number allows him to fold many of his holdings without being run over.

Secondly, on average, he'll have a lot of better made hands and hands, which equity will be easier to realize here: one-pair hands, decent flush draws, a mix of both and even some trips.

Thirdly, his exact holding will have a tough time to realize its equity, and there's no river which would improve it to a better category than a bluff catcher.

Prydryk, however, takes little time and makes a questionable (yet, in this very instance, correct) call. Of course, every live poker table has its own dynamics, which can convince players to make certain decisions, so we can’t rule out that, for example, Ukrainian picked up a tell from Payne.

The river improves Prydryk but gives Payne another chance to bluff

As mentioned above, the Ukrainian player can't be too happy. The Ace of clubs is a decent card to his whole range, but it does not allow him to bet. His exact hand still is barely a bluff catcher, so once again, there's no reason to develop a leading range.

Now, Payne has a big decision - should he bluff, and if yes, what size should he choose? Even though his actual range shouldn't contain many Aces, he can bet almost 45% of his hands.

As for sizing, he should lean towards going all in - his range should have enough strong hands to support such a big bet. Additionally, in this particular hand shoving would force Prydryk to make a decision for his tournament life. It would probably be the most challenging call to make in his whole career.

As for the choice of combo to bluff with, Payne is once again spot on. His exact combo has zero equity and doesn't block much of Prydryk's folding range.

Quite astonishingly, Prydryk is not concerned much and calls quickly. His lack of hesitation begs the question: should he?

Not necessarily. In this exact situation, he should choose combos to call with a lot of caution. Barring the fact that the Ukrainian player should fold the turn, he should be folding his weakest top two combos on the river. Prydryk should also lean towards calling Tx combos that block backdoor flushes (like KcTx or QcTx) and unblock missed straight draws (so, they do not contain J’s, 9’s or 7’s).

His gut feeling was right this time, letting him scoop the pot. As a result, his intuition and stubbornness helped him finish fifth and win $2,4 M!

GTO poker: key insights

When your opponent overbets, you can (and should) fold many marginal hands, even against an extremely aggressive player. Always consider how much equity you need to call and how often you'll be able to realize it.

Putting a ton of pressure on your opponents in the later stages of big tournaments is a way to go and will net you a lot of chips. Sometimes, however, when your image is very loose, your opponents won't fold even when they theoretically should.

Don't get discouraged, though. A smart and aggressive postflop plan will profit you more often than not, and Deepsolver is one of the best tools to craft such plans - check it out yourself.

Learn more about Deepsolver:

Also, check out our other Deepsolver Checks:

• Deepsolver Check #1: Calling With an Ace High for Over $400k!
• Deepsolver Check #2: What to Call When Durrrr Puts You All-in?
• Deepsolver Check #3: Top Pro Outplayed at the 2023 WSOP Main Event!
• Deepsolver Check #4: Middle Set vs. Top Two Deep in the 2023 WSOP Main Event