Was This Bluff From a Heads-up for Over $2 Million Correct?

Undoubtedly, Bryn Kenney is a controversial figure in the poker community. During the last few years, he has been involved in at least a few dubious poker stories, but since no consequences were drawn, it’s not a place or time to judge him.

Another thing is also undoubtedly true about Bryn - he’s pretty damn good at poker. He proved it again this summer by winning the biggest event of the recent Triton Series - Luxon Invitational with a buy-in of $262,500.

This cyclical event has a very peculiar structure. Half the field consists of selected poker VIPs; each can invite one poker pro to play. Both groups play separately on day one of the tournament, and the remaining players merge on a subsequent day.

In the latest edition of the Luxon Invitational, Bryn Kenney’s HU opponent was one of the "recreational" players - Talal Shakerchi. That being said, labeling him as an amateur might be an understatement. While he is not a professional poker player, Talal has been playing the game for years, winning a 2016 WCOOP Main Event for $ 1.4 M and amassing a respectable $18 M in live tournament earnings with his aggressive and fearless style.

A top-tier professional vs. an accomplished and relentless businessman was an excellent lineup for a heads-up for over $2 M, and it delivered!

As usual, you can watch the whole hand in the video below; it starts around 4:22:25.

The heads-up started even, but over time, Bryn gained a 2:1 advantage in chips

The hand we’ll cover starts with Kenney having around 23 M (77 BB) in chips to 11 M (37 BB) of Shakerchi. Bryn opens the action with a 2.3 BB raise from the button with K8o. Before we go any further, we'd like to point out that you can approach a heads-up match in various ways. Each has its merits, from a very limp-heavy strategy to raising small with a wide range or an in-between strategy. Nevertheless, a small raise with Brynn’s exact holding is definitely a sound play.

Talal, on the other hand, has two most prevalent options to choose from. Against a min-raise, his exact hand would be a mandatory call; against a 2.3 BB open, it’s probably too loose of a defense, since realizing the EV of such a poor hand will be tricky. However, the English businessman is known for not shying away from the action, so he calls quickly, and both players take a flop.

The QJ9 flop is a dynamic one

Usually, high boards (containing two or more broadway cards) are favorable for the in-position player. Things are no different this time, and the BU range has a 52% to 48% equity lead on the QJ9.

On this board, the BU should have a solid nut advantage (having QQ, JJ, 99, all of the two pairs, overpairs and straights in the range). That being said, while lacking some of the best possible combos, the BB has many hands that can comfortably continue vs. a bet.

The IP strategy reflects that quality, as the button player shouldn’t continue to bet mindlessly. Solver suggests betting with a ⅓ sizing around 40% of the time. There are a lot of hands that make sense as a cbet: mostly second pairs or better and quite a lot of combos with a straight draw. K8o should be, according to the solver, a high-frequency bet, and Bryn seems to agree.

The consequence of the BU's equity advantage on the flop is visualized on the screen below. The BB shouldn't raise much, and the best way to defend OOP is to call. The GTO strategy is very straightforward: Talal should defend all his hands with an open-ended straight draw, a gutshot with an overcard or better. T5 falls in the first category, and unsurprisingly, Talal continues.

*That's a reasonably easy strategy to replicate*

Usually, board-pairing turns are great for the out-of-position player

And that’s the case in this instance. Nine of hearts strengthens a significant portion of the BB’s range (Talal should have a lot of 9x preflop, and as we’ve found out earlier, he should call all of them on the flop). It’s also worth noting that equity shifted significantly; now, the out-of-position player has a 59% to 41% advantage. This change encourages the solver to lead often. However, in this match Talal wasn’t leading turns a lot after check-calling the flop, so we've simplified his strategy to a check-only.

Since it benefits the OOP player, this turn forces Bryn to be more selective with the hands he bets. He shouldn't bet too thinly now, even though he still has all the nut combinations. Many of his top and second pairs are checks now; the same is true for a big portion of his draws, which now would like to realize their equity. K8o is a combo that can improve on some rivers, can win at showdown quite often, is not interested in building a pot, and would hate to be check-raised. All of those circumstances make it a decent candidate for a check back.

*Since this turn hits BB often, Bryn should be checking a lot*

The river doesn’t change much

Since the seven on the river very rarely improves either player, we can draw a few conclusions:

the OOP position player should maintain the solid equity advantage he gained on the turn.
since he wasn't leading earlier, this river should allow BB to bet quite often.
BB should be able to use an overbet sizing, which is rare for an out-of-position player on the river.

As we’ve established, Talal shouldn’t have much of a raising range on earlier streets. Combining that with the favorable runout and the fact that his range should be centred around strong pairs with the addition of trips, quite a few straights and full house combos allows him to implement an aggressive strategy.

On the other hand, Bryn’s range is more polar: it has all of the nut combos but lacks the trips and additionally has a solid chunk of hands that either have to bet to win a pot or have some chances of winning the pot but won’t bet themselves.

With his combo, Talal has a 0% chance of winning at showdown.

When checked to, Bryn will either bet (both value and bluffs) or check back with hands that beat ten high. Shakerchi has many strong hands to bet, so he has to come up with some bluffs, and his holding is the perfect choice. According to the solver, he can even choose to go ham, using an overbet sizing.

*Ladies and gentlemen, that's a very aggressive OOP strategy!*

Versus a bet, Brynn has a tough nut to crack. On the one hand, he’s getting ~5:1 odds, which means he needs to be good slightly more than 18% of the time. On the other hand, his opponent has a lot of potential value bets - Talal can value bet thinly almost all of his second and top pairs. What makes things worse is that the only reasonable bluffs Kenney beats are naked Tx hands.

What would the solver do in this spot?

Firstly, let’s think about Bryn’s range. He has a few nut combos (straight, full house or quads) that can raise for value (around 6% of his range). Then he has a lot of combos (around 40%) of one pair hands (which are now technically two pairs). Lastly, he has a share of Ace highs (19%), King highs (10%) and the rest of the hands without much or any showdown value (around 25%).

According to the solver, Bryn’s range has enough Ace highs (or better) to defend to fold his King highs. Moreover, the Ace highs for the IP player don't block the Kx combos, which bluffs sometimes in the OOP shoes. Instead of a call, Brynn's particular combo is a decent bluff-raising candidate since it blocks both the straights and a few solid valuebets.

Unless Talal bluffs this exact spot with an overly high frequency, Brynn’s call is a little too light, given how value-heavy the OOP range should be. Of course, life poker has its nuances and dynamics, but in the vacuum, Brynn’s range should be strong enough that he doesn’t need to defend as wide.

However, being one of the most accomplished tournament players requires the intuition and willingness to take risks. Despite being too loose according to the GTO strategy, Bryn makes a call and extends his lead over his fierce opponent.

The momentum he gained thanks to this hero call wasn’t wasted, as soon after this hand, Brynn beat his opponent and lifted the trophy.

GTO Poker insights

Although Bryn’s river play wasn’t 100% solver-approved, there are at least two thighs to learn from this hand:

Whenever you’re about to hero call on a river, think about your range, how wide you should defend and how often you’ll have a better hand to do so.
Whenever you’re out of position, learn to identify when the runout favors you as the OOP player, and don't shy away from betting (even on the larger side) when it’s the best for your range.

Both guidelines require you to practice a lot, and there’s hardly a better way to do so than studying with Deepsolver. Try it out for yourself with a seven-day free trial.

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