Today, we’ll use the Deepsolver findings to shed some light on the continuation bet strategy for cash games.
While poker solvers’ output is helpful in almost any No Limit Hold'em scenario, it’s especially effective in cash games. The lack of ICM makes the default GTO strategies much more accurate since you do not have to consider additional information (like other players' stack depth or blinds increase).
As you probably know, whenever you're deep in the tournament, the value of your chips will differ based on a few factors (like the current blinds level). In cash games, on the other hand, the outside circumstances are negligible, and the chips you can win are worth the same as the ones you can lose.
If you want to learn more about the importance of the Independent Chip Model in tournament play, we've covered that topic in another blog entry.
In this article, we’ll talk about how to approach c-betting in cash games.
Continuation betting strategy for cash games - where to begin?
Once again, we’ve started our study by running 60 flop structures via the aggregated flop reports tool. This time, we looked at the common online cash game situation: the Button vs the Big Blind spot in the six max lineup at 100 BB stack depth.
Let’s double-check the BB strategy first. In the game, you can expect your opponents to play a pure check strategy; in this case, it is (almost) fully solver-approved. Across all the boards we've investigated, Deepsolver chooses to check nearly 96% of the time, which is a clear sign that a check-only strategy is a way to go.
As expected, the strategy for the in-position player is much more elaborate and worth examining closely. In our case, the solver could choose between checking back, using a ⅓ or ¾ bet, or going for a 160% pot overbet.
The results for over 60 different flop structures are as follows:
check: 27.9%
bet ⅓: 48%
bet ¾: 17.8%
overbet: 6.3%
Remember that when working with solvers, you should not treat these frequencies as set in stone; consider them guidelines for what is theoretically correct and what is not.
Let’s start our study with the least used sizing, which is also one of the most interesting: an overbet.
When should you consider overbetting in the single raised pot?
The overbet is a sizing rarely seen on the flop, yet in our report, there are a few boards on which solvers love to bet very big. Why is it so? We will write a piece devoted solely to the topic of overbetting in the future, but for now, let’s highlight two main reasons for betting more than the pot on the flop:
- inflating the pot allows the in-position player to get their stack in the middle more “smoothly” on the river (without betting significantly bigger than the pot size);
- there are a few board categories where the in-position player has such a significant advantage in both EV and EQ that it validates using massive bets.
Let’s look at the math behind the first reason; typically, if you’d go for a triple barrel using roughly a ¾ sizing each time, you’ll end up with an SPR (stack-to-pot ratio) of ~2.5 on the river.
In this scenario, betting on particular streets looks like this: 4 BB into 5 BB on the flop, 10 BB into 13 BB on the turn, and you end up with an ~84 BB stack and ~33 BB pot on the river. Even if you bet the exact pot amount on the flop and the turn, the pot on the river will be 45 BB, and the stacks will equal 78 BB.
However, if you start with a 160% bet on the flop (8 BB into the pot of 5 BB) and bet ¾ on the turn (15.75 BB into 21 BB), you’ll end up with a stack-to-pot ratio of 1.4 (74 BB stacks with 52.5 BB in the pot), which makes the all-in much more natural option compared to the 2.5 SPR we’ve started with.
Moreover, if you follow the flop overbet with a full pot on the turn, you’ll end up with a river SPR of close to 1!
As you can see, betting a few blinds more on the flop can tremendously impact the strategy and bet sizing on the later streets.
Now, let’s look closer at the boards in our sim where overbets occur most frequently:
AK9 with a flush draw to a King,
AK8 with an Ace and a King in the same suit,
AJ9 with a flush draw to a Jack,
AJ2 with an Ace and a Jack in the same suit,
and KQ3 with a King and a Three in the same suit.
What do all of these boards have in common? They all contain two high cards (by high card, we consider a Ten or a face card) and a flush draw. The high cards aspect results in a strong equity lead for an in-position player having a considerable nut advantage (the Button’s range includes all the sets and most of the two-pair combos), while the out-of-position player lacks the very best hands. As a result, the Button has between 56 and 60% equity lead in each case, which also translates to an advantage in the Expected Value area.
Whenever you bet big on the flop, you increase the cost of chasing flush draws (the out-of-position player is supposed to have no raises in their strategy, and in a few cases, they should fold the weakest flush draws versus an overbet on the flop), and sets you up to fold many of them on brick turns. Additionally, betting big allows you to leverage your advantage: the value part of your range gets paid, and if your opponent does not defend enough hands, your bluffs print money.
When to bet ⅓ (and when to consider ¾)?
According to our sim, the ⅓ is the most common sizing - the solver chooses small bets almost half the time (48%), and the ¾ pot bet is the second most popular (17%). However, playing a multi-bet strategy requires experience and knowledge, so if you prefer, you can simplify your strategy for certain types of boards to only one sizing with occasional overbets.
What does the GTO strategy for c-betting small and big look like? The boards Deepsolver prefers to bet using a ⅓ sizing are:
QQJ with a flush draw,
AAQ with a flush draw,
KJ2 rainbow,
A97 rainbow,
and three paired boards:
KK8, JJ7 and K77.
What do these boards have in common? They are either paired, disconnected or both.
As a result, the out-of-position player has a lot of natural folds (hands that have no connection with the board, which you can expect your opponent to fold 100% of the time against a continuation bet).
Let’s look at the QQJ board; against a ⅓ sizing, the BB should fold around 42% of the time. In reality, you can expect an even bigger folding equity since many opponents won’t defend some hands they theoretically should (like the worst Ace highs). Additionally, it’s also doubtful for your opponents to find enough check-raises, which increases the EV of your c-bets even more (allowing you to maintain the betting lead in the hand and realize more equity on later streets).
While your range maintains an equity advantage on paired flops, you need to be aware that on such structures, the Big Blind player will have many trips in their range, allowing them to take aggressive lines more often. The small bet makes more sense whenever your opponent can check-raise you aggressively. By betting small, you force your opponent to fold some hands and keep the pot relatively small when you face an aggressive response.
What about the ¾ sizing? The preferred boards for this sizing are:
AJT rainbow,
J86 rainbow,
AQJ with a flush draw
and JT6 with a flush draw.
On such boards, IP has all of the nuts in their range, which the out-of-position player lacks, but they still have many strong holdings (like top pairs) that they need to defend.
Let’s look at the first example, AJT rainbow. On this structure, the BU player crushes the BB both in terms of equity (60% to 40%) and EV (3.9 to 1.1). Despite that big of a difference, the BB still has a lot of hands that they can’t fold to a single bet (mainly top pair and pairs + draws), and that’s where most of the IP player EV comes from.
High, disconnected boards (ideally with two high cards) are perfect for pressuring out-of-position player, forcing your opponent to call with mediocre holdings frequently.
When should you consider checking instead of betting?
Unsurprisingly, the overall strategy for the Button vs. the Big Blind is aggressive. However, there are boards where you should check a lot.
The most frequently checked boards are:
AJ4 monotone,
865 with a flush draw
and 754 with a flush draw.
As is often the case with mono boards (our findings were similar for MTT scenarios), you should be very selective with c-betting on such structure.
Generally speaking, the Big Blind has a lot of flushes in their range (since they defend so wide preflop) and as a result, a lot of mediocre value hands (like second pairs or weaker top pairs) refrain from betting on monotone boards. It prevents the OOP player from check-raising and keeps the pot size under control, which makes it easier to realize the full value of fragile holdings by reaching the showdown.
What about the 865 and 754 structures? The EV and EQ leads are the smallest on these two boards for the in-position player. This is a typical occurrence for condensed boards with multiple straight possibilities. On such boards, the Big Blind's range includes all of the nuts, which forces the Button to check back a lot to prevent check-raises.
The second category of highly checked boards is the ones you should overbet. What’s the reason? It might be counterintuitive to bet either very big or none at all. The betting strategy on such boards is usually very polar - you bet very strong hands (which benefit from your opponent putting more money into the pot) or bluffs (which benefit from your opponent's folds).
What about the in-between hands? You check them since they are usually either way ahead or way behind, so you don't mind giving your opponent a "free card", controlling the size of the pot and allowing the OOP player to bluff.
Time spent on learning the c-bet strategy is time well spend
Take some time to study the correct c-betting strategy. Whether you're a cash game player or MTTs are more of your thing, c-betting with the right hands should be your bread and butter. If you explore this area, you’ll be surprised how poorly your opponents play and how easy exploiting them can be.
Deepsolver allows you to learn much more than c-betting strategy, but it's the best place to start. Moreover, you can not only learn the GTO strategies, but test how good are you at implementing them.
Is it a tool for you? Try it out for a free trial. Want to know more? Contact us on our Discord server.