What happens when two elite players meet in a heads-up match with a large amount of money and bragging rights at stake? A lot of tense poker action is guaranteed.
In late March 2023, Doug Polk, considered one of the best HU players in the world, issued an open challenge for anybody wishing to test their skills. The rules are pretty straightforward:
So far, only four people have been brave enough to take on the HU specialist:
- Bill Perkins (a businessman, philanthropist and poker aficionado),
- Scott Ball (two-time WSOP bracelet winner - he won both titles in 2021)
- Kevin Rabichow (former full-time heads-up pro)
- Owen Messere (young online pro)
As of the date of writing these words (late September 2023), Doug’s total winnings sum to a healthy $380,400. So far, this challenge has been an occasion to score some big bucks and an excellent advertisement for the Lodge Card Club (which Polk co-owns), where all matches are played.
You’ll find the challenge summary and the recorded videos here.
In this article, we’d like to look at one of the hands from the last match against Owen Messere, in which a standard open-raise turned into a bet/overbet/overbet with an eight high!
A poker hand starting like many others
You can see the hand we’re referring to in the video picturing the match; it starts at 6:21:11.
As we’ve already teased, the action preflop is trivial: a raise to a 2.5BB from Doug and a call from Owen. Both are standard; if anything, Owen could consider 3-betting his hand.
The flop is interesting for both players; Doug flops the open-ended straight draw, while Owen has an overcard and a gutshot straight draw to the nuts.
Most of the time, the OOP player is so disadvantageous on the flop that their strategy is either a pure check or close to it. This hand happens at very deep stacks (both players have 250BB+, which is much more than the usual hands we check), but this logic also applies here. Since Owen had no incentive to slowplay preflop, he doesn’t have any overpairs to the board, and he also can’t have the top and the middle set. While Messere can have some high equity hands, like two pairs, he lacks the nuts, so his go-to strategy should be a pure check one.
On the other hand, Doug can go quite aggressive on this board; he has a lot of two pairs combos (and better) and a decent number of high equity draws, which will be great candidates for bluffing later on. His exact combo falls into the latter category, so he rightfully chooses to bet ⅔ of the pot.
Since both players are so deep, choosing the bigger sizing on the flop is reasonable. It also makes it much easier to grow the pot with the strongest holdings for the IP player.
As we’ve mentioned, Owen lacks the nuts on this board (except for 66), so almost no combo in his range (except for 66, 96 and Q6) would like to raise. When only a few out of a few hundred (over 500 in this case) combos are willing to raise, it’s better to simplify your strategy and play only call/fold strategy. The expected value loss will be negligible (if any), and such a strategy will be much easier for you to implement.
When we simplify the strategy to either a call or a fold, we get nice and clean guidelines, according to which Owen’s exact combo is a pure call.
The turn is a brick, but Doug Polk is picking up the pace
Four of diamonds is as much of a brick turn as possible. It doesn’t increase the number of nuts in the BB range, so once again, Owen has no incentive to develop a leading range. As an elite player, he’s definitely aware of that, so unsurprisingly, he checks to Doug.
The Lodge co-owner, on the other hand, has a much more interesting choice. Three paths make sense as an IP player. Firstly, some weaker hands with showdown equity like to check, along with the “air hands” that cannot improve significantly on the river.
The hands that would like to bet can choose between two sizings (preferred by the solver among the ones we tried): ⅔ pot or a 1.5 pot overbet. Most of the value hands mix except for a few: a bottom and a middle set, and most of the two pairs prefer betting bigger since they either benefit from protection or unblock the OOP player's calling range.
The only hand that clearly likes the smaller bet is the top set, which is understandable - it doesn’t need much protection and heavily blocks the potential Messere’s calling range.
In a nutshell, Doug’s got plenty of value hands; he can go with a very aggressive strategy that also includes a lot of various draws. 87 is one of the premium draws to choose from since a five always makes it the nuts, ten makes it the third nuts (which would be very painful for Polk in this exact case), and even hitting a third pair on the river can be enough to scoop the pot.
Despite having a gutshot to the nuts with an overcard, Owen can’t be thrilled facing an overbet (which proves why it’s such an effective bet). Once again, the BB player is in a situation where it doesn’t make sense to raise and has to defend his whole range by calling. Against a massive bet, the solver folds the weakest pairs in this situation. Only the top pairs (and better) are always calling.
Owen's exact combo is in a peculiar spot. On the one hand, it almost never will win on a showdown unimproved (Doug will likely bet worse hands once again and check back the combos that beat KJ). On the other hand, if Owen hits a top pair or a straight, he’s likely to take advantage of Polk’s perceived aggression.
Whatever way we’ll look at this spot, it's not an easy decision. Eventually, Owen decides to call, and both players get to the river with 40 Big Blind in the pot and King high being the best hand.
The river finally pairs someone
Jack of spades improves Owen's hand to a second pair, a hand which is usually quite a strong one in heads-up poker. However, given the action on earlier streets and how devoid of the nuts is Owen’s range, he has to check once again.
Despite improving Owen’s actual hand, this card is even better for Doug. He still has quite a few two-pair+ combos, and some of his gutshots became a straight. The IP player nut advantage is even more significant now, translating into another opportunity for an overbet.
Thanks to having an extensive range of value hands, Doug can bluff a lot here. His exact combo is an excellent choice to do so - 87 has 0% equity, and it doesn’t block flush draws + pair combos.
Summarizing these qualities could result in only one outcome - a second consecutive spot-on overbet from Doug.
Facing yet another massive bet, Owen, understandably so, is in the world of hurt. Since Doug is known for a very aggressive approach, folding a second pair with a strong kicker seems like a stretch and an invitation to being run over.
What does the solver advise? According to our computer friend, folding KJ, while it feels bad, is justifiable. Against an overbet, Owen doesn’t have to defend more than ~40% of his hands. His passive strategy on earlier streets should result in him having enough better holdings to call (like top pairs, two pairs, or pairs blocking straight) than KJ.
In-game, Owen ponders his option for quite a while and ultimately lets Doug’s bluff through, folding his strong second pair.
Since Doug didn’t have it this time, it might look like a bad fold, but considering the bigger picture, both players played this hand extremely well.
There are at least two things worth learning from this hand:
- Whenever you have a solid nut advantage on a big SPR, overbets should be considered a part of your strategy, as they will put your opponent in terrible situations.
- When your opponent has a nut advantage, you don’t have to hero call often vs. the overbets.
Overall, this hand is a great testament to how intriguing heads-up poker played on deep stacks can be. There’s no other poker format that will thoroughly test your skills, and there’s no better way to improve your poker skills than Deepsolver.
See for yourself how easy studying even complex spots can be. Try it out for yourself with a seven-day free trial.
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- Deepsolver Check #3: Top Pro Outplayed at the 2023 WSOP Main Event!
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- Deepsolver Check #6: Would You Call For a Tournament Life With a Bottom Pair?
- Deepsolver Check #7: Was This Bluff From a Heads-up for Over $2 Million Correct?